While no details are available at this time, SEB’s experts believe net export is still the main driving force in the ongoing gradual recovery. At the same time the export dominance is now gradually fading.
“Earlier published data show imports have started to pick up and the trade deficit increased in the latest quarter. The reason is that domestic demand is awakening from its crisis-period hibernation, a process which began late last year,” Mikael Johansson, head of Eastern European economic research at SEB, says.
Going ahead, Johansson says that SEB still expect growth of 4 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent in 2012. In 2010 the economy, as measured by GDP, grew by 1.3 per cent.
Johansson says that it’s important to underline however is that there are still sizeable base effects behind the economic recovery. In sectors like retail trade and construction comparative figures were strongly depressed one year ago.
Lithuania is the first Baltic country to report GDP figures for the first quarter. Latvia is set to report first quarter GDP figures on 10 May followed by Estonia on 12 May.