Theme: COP26
Climate negotiations in Glasgow
From October 31 to November 13, world leaders met at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland. Their main purpose was to review the progress that countries have made on their pledges to help the world meet the target of the 2015 Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre- industrial levels, and if possible limit it to 1.5 degrees. At the heart of the Glasgow negotiations was the issue of how much countries must raise their ambitions in order to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century.
COP26 is the 26th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Since the Paris Agreement was reached in December 2015, 194 countries have signed it. One of the most important principles in the agreement is that countries set their own targets for contributing to the limitation of global warming. In these nationally determined contributions (NDCs), countries present their voluntary proposals on how they will help to curb the increase in global temperatures.
The Paris Agreement also requires that countries successively ratchet up their commitments and renew or update their NDCs every five years. A Global Stocktake of their overall commitments will also take place every five years, starting in 2023 when the contributions pledged by all countries will be compiled and analysed to see how much their collective efforts will achieve.
Before the Glasgow meeting, the hope was that countries would live up to their commitments under the Paris Agreement by adopting more ambitious targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions no later than 2030. In its latest report last August, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said the world must immediately, sharply and continuously lower emissions to curb global warming in line with the Paris Agreement.
Lofty ambitions before the conference
For the British government, which hosted the annual climate negotiations this year, the main goal of COP26 was for countries to agree to keep the more ambitious 1.5 degree target within reach. One week before the conference, the chances of achieving this goal appeared bleak. That is when the UNFCCC secretariat released its latest “synthesis report” on countries' NDCs. The report indicated that global greenhouse gas emissions will increase 16 per cent by 2030, compared to 2010. Such an increase, unless changed rapidly, may lead to a temperature rise of about 2.7 degrees by the end of this century far above what scientists regard as a level with fairly manageable climate effects.
The International Energy Agency has provided answers to the question of how the world can still succeed in limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement. In its World Energy Outlook, released a few weeks before COP26, the IEA declared that coal power needs to be reduced by 55 per cent during the current decade. In addition, annual investments in renewable energy and energy infrastructure must increase from the current USD 1 trillion to USD 3.4 trillion by 2030. The IEA report also showed that current investments in oil and gas are among the very few areas that are reasonably in line with the Paris Agreement.
Although there is a strong consensus among experts about what technologies and investments are required to achieve the global climate target, it is unclear how responsibility for political implementation and financing will be allocated. Movements that work towards climate justice, such as Fridays for Future, point out that the countries that have largely caused climate change are not the ones that will suffer the most from its consequences. In addition, the quantity of greenhouse gases that can be emitted in order to achieve Paris Agreement targets is limited, and most of this has already been emitted by rich countries. According to the IPCC's latest report, only 500 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide remain to preserve a 50 per cent chance of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees. In 2019, global CO2 emissions were 33 gigatonnes.
How to achieve a fair allocation of responsibility for emission reductions has also historically been one of the most controversial issues in international climate negotiations. Just two weeks before negotiations began in Glasgow, the British government was accused by China and India, among others, of trying to impose an unfair target of net zero emissions by 2050 on developing countries. At the same time, the latest IPCC report shows that emissions from both developed and developing countries must be reduced to net zero by mid-century in order to achieve the 1.5 degree target.
New pledges boost the chance of success
Just before COP26 began, the governments of Australia and Saudi Arabia announced their ambition to achieve net zero emissions in 2050 and 2060, respectively. These two countries have been criticised for years for slowing down the world’s transition to fossil-free energy. In addition, the credibility of these net zero targets by the world's largest exporters of coal and oil, respectively, has been questioned since their targets do not include any plans to reduce fossil fuel production.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s announcement at the beginning of COP26 that India’s ambition is to achieve net zero emissions by 2070 was an unexpected and positive message. India had previously not wished to make any binding commitments, since it considers itself entitled to prioritise economic development. The world's fourth largest greenhouse gas emitter will increase its non-fossil energy capacity to 500 gigawatts by 2030, from today's 100 gigawatts. In addition, India will meet half its energy needs from renewable sources by the end of the current decade. This has been interpreted by climate economist Nicholas Stern as meaning that the country's emissions will peak before then. Modi's proposals put pressure on other countries and leaders, including both other emerging economies and the US.
An agreement by more than 70 countries to phase out coal-fired power production is another important outcome at COP26, since coal combustion is one of the absolutely biggest contributors to global warming. Coal- dependent countries such as Poland, Ukraine and Vietnam are included in the agreement. But several of the world's largest consumers and producers of coal- fired power such as China, India and Australia are not part of the initiative. The agreement also lacks a deadline for when coal-fired power will be phased out. According to the IEA, this should take place by 2040 globally in order to meet the world's climate goals.
An agreement among more than 100 countries to reduce methane emissions by 30 per cent has also been cited as a success for COP26. Methane has almost 100 times more capacity to capture heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide. Methane gas emissions are mainly caused by the exploitation of oil and natural gas, but agriculture is also a major source of methane emissions. The US was behind the initiative, while China and Russia are not involved.
A declaration aimed at ending deforestation and restoring felled areas is also regarded as an important step forward. The 105 countries behind this pledge account for 85 per cent of the world's forests, and they include such countries as Brazil, Indonesia and Congo. The initiative will receive initial funding of USD 14 billion. However, the declaration does not specify how much forest is to be protected, nor does it clearly define what is meant by sustainable forestry or provide a strategy for dealing with goal conflicts.
In an initial analysis, the IEA estimates that the new promises, if they become a reality, may limit global warming to between 1.8 and 1.9 degrees. However, non-profit research group Climate Action Tracker which did its own analysis criticised that this would only be true under a best-case scenario – and that ambition must be raised further to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.
From “Blah, blah, blah" to action
Thus, the IEA’s estimates should be interpreted cautiously. Jacob Werksman, the European Union’s top climate negotiator, warned that the organisation’s statements ignore the fact that none of the new pledges have been implemented yet.
A new analysis of national climate policy measures that was published by Climate Action Tracker before COP26 pointed to the wide gap between national pledges and actual behaviour. The group’s analysis of 40 countries showed that only one country – Gambia – has a climate policy framework consistent with the 1.5 degree target.
There is a risk that empty promises were made in Glasgow. As a result, serious effects like those the UN Panel on Climate Change has long warned about could become a reality. But another outcome would be that the transition to renewable energy would be much more unstructured, erratic and costly. In its first climate- related macroeconomic stress test earlier this year, the European Central Bank warned of a "disorderly transition", in which extreme decisions are taken after 2030 in order to protect society and the economy from the worst consequences of climate change.
Simultaneously, COP 26 has also provided some momentum for improving the NDCs to accelerate emission reductions this decade. The declaration of the US and China arguably the largest surprise of COP 26 speaks of a joint commitment to raise ambitions in the 2020s to close the gap between current global efforts and what is needed to achieve the Paris Agreement.
The answer to the question if COP 26 was a breakthrough or a breakdown of international climate negotiations will not be found in the summit’s final declaration. It will be found in the actions that governments and the private sector take to promote rapid, lasting and science-based emission reductions.