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A troubled world continues to hope.
The global economy is decelerating, but at different rates in different parts of the world. Lower inflation, high employment and rising real wages will continue to support a soft landing. Key interest rates have peaked, and the US Federal Reserve will begin its rate cutting cycle by the middle of next year. This will contribute to a moderate recovery during the latter part of our forecast period. Meanwhile geopolitical turmoil is creating growing downside risks. The question of how well economies – and the financial system – can continue to withstand increasingly tight financial conditions is another uncertainty.WB november 2023.
US growth has continued to surprise on the upside, but we regard many of the recent drivers as temporary or gradually fading. We continue to expect a marked slowdown in Q4 and the first half of 2024, followed by a trend-like growth in 2025.
We expect GDP to stagnate, on average, for the remainder of this year due to tighter financial conditions and weak global demand. 2024 falling inflation and a recovery in international demand will lead to a pickup in consumption and exports.
GDP has trended lower since the end of 2022. We predict that the decline will continue until mid-2024. The downturn is mainly driven by residential investment and household consumption.
In-depth country and regional analyses that we have recently published on our SEB Research website
Our macroeconomic flagship report Nordic Outlook contains our economists' views on economic developments in the world. You will find key forecasts as well as an analysis of trends and political decisions that affect the world economy.
