Nordic Outlook - highlights
What are the findings in the latest issue of Nordic Outlook? Here you find our economists' in-depth theme articles and analysis of trends.
You need to use a different browser. To be able to use our internet services, you can instead use one of these browsers: Apple Safari, Google Chrome, Microsoft Edge or Mozilla Firefox.
Our macroeconomic flagship report Nordic Outlook contains our economists' views on economic developments in the world. You will find key forecasts as well as an analysis of trends and political decisions that affect the world economy.
The global economy is decelerating, but at different rates in different parts of the world. Lower inflation, high employment and rising real wages will continue to support a soft landing. Key interest rates have peaked, and the US Federal Reserve will begin its rate cutting cycle by the middle of next year. This will contribute to a moderate recovery during the latter part of our forecast period. Meanwhile geopolitical turmoil is creating growing downside risks. The question of how well economies – and the financial system – can continue to withstand increasingly tight financial conditions is another uncertainty.
The overall picture is that there is relatively good potential for avoiding an economic hard landing, especially in the US. Uncertainty is greater elsewhere. In Sweden, we will have weak growth both this year and in 2024, but will likely avoid a deep, prolonged recession with sharply rising unemployment.
There are more and more signs that high inflation is finally coming down. Energy, commodity, transport and input prices have fallen. This has not led to broad-based declines in consumer prices, but we are at least seeing a slowdown in the pace of price increases. While this is welcome news, there is every reason for continued caution.
The United States and Europe are headed towards a mild recession in early 2023. The inflation outlook has improved, and the likelihood of a deep downturn has diminished, write SEB's economists in a new issue of Nordic Outlook.