Global tensions hamper growth
The US tariff hikes have created economic and political confusion, although uncertainty has eased this summer. The global economy is slowing, but slightly less than expected.
Nordic Outlook August 2025
What are the findings in the latest issue of Nordic Outlook? Our economists' give you in-depth theme articles and analysis of trends.
The US tariff hikes have created economic and political confusion, although uncertainty has eased this summer. The global economy is slowing, but slightly less than expected. Fiscal stimulus and further rate cuts support growth but also create risks. Global GDP is growing by about 3 per cent per year and inflation remains modest in most countries except the US, where the tariffs are temporarily boosting inflation. In Sweden, growth is being kept in check by cautious households, and it looks like the recovery will be delayed another six months.
Summary of Nordic Outlook August 2025
Investment strategist Johan Hagbarth leads a discussion with chief economist Jens Magnusson and head of forecasting Daniel Bergvall about the state of the global economy and the outlook ahead, as summarised in the latest Nordic Outlook.
(In Swedish)
Theme: The burden of debt
The combination of higher interest rates, weak economic growth, and large budget deficits is making it increasingly difficult for highly indebted countries to keep their finances under control. Market concerns are reflected in rising risk premiums and sharp reactions to political events.
Theme: Consumption
Households remain cautious on increasing their consumption despite rising real wages, clearly lower mortgage rates and lower taxes. The high inflation and drop in real wages in recent years seem to have left deep scars, and low household confidence suggests that there will not be a clear recovery in consumption any time soon.
United States
Unexpected resilience in trade policy turbulence reduces recession fears, even if tariffs are a factor of uncertainty. We are raising the GDP forecast to 1.6 per cent this year.
Euro area
There are two forces pulling in different directions. US tariffs on the one hand, and investments and defence initiatives fuelling longer-term growth on the other. The ECB is at the end of its rate-cutting cycle.
China
With resilient growth since the turn of the year and lower-than-feared US tariffs, we increase our GDP forecast this year to 5 per cent. The PBoC will ensure a continued weak yuan to facilitate non-US exports.
Sweden
Growth in the first half of this year was weaker than expected. Unemployment has continued to rise. Inflation has been high during the summer, but is falling back. The Riksbank will cut the interest rate again in September.
Makropodd about Nordic Outlook August 2025
In this edition of Makropodd, SEB’s chief economist Jens Magnusson and head of forecasting Daniel Bergvall discuss the bank’s economic report, Nordic Outlook (podcast in Swedish).
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Our macroeconomic flagship report Nordic Outlook contains our economists' views on economic developments in the world. You will find key forecasts as well as an analysis of trends and political decisions that affect the world economy.
