A divided world takes on an uncertain 2025
A world that is out of sync has now entered 2025. By all indications, this year will be eventful.
Nordic Outlook February 2025
What are the findings in the latest issue of Nordic Outlook? Our economists' give you in-depth theme articles and analysis of trends.
By all indications 2025 will be eventful. The United States is still showing vigorous economic growth, while most European countries are struggling against headwinds. China reported growth right on target for 2024 but is still grappling with both structural and cyclical problems. India, which now has the world’s largest population, continues its growth journey despite some political changes after last year’s election.
The world’s countries and regions are thus facing the new year under highly divergent, and partly new, conditions. In spite of everything, we expect the global economy to continue growing by just over 3 per cent and for the US to grow faster than Europe again this year. In Sweden, we expect an economic turnaround during 2025 and believe that after a couple of years of weak performance, we will see a growth surge.
Summary of Nordic Outlook February 2025
Investment strategist Johan Hagbarth leads a discussion with chief economist Jens Magnusson and head of forecasting Daniel Bergvall about the state of the global economy and the outlook ahead, as summarized in the latest Nordic Outlook.
(In Swedish)
Ageing population
Falling birth rates and rising life expectancy are causing the world’s population structure to change dramatically. Ageing populations exert upward pressure on social welfare spending and downward pressure on growth. The megatrend of rapidly ageing world population is well worth focusing on; few forces will have a greater impact on long-term economic developments.
Swedish industry
Swedish GDP has been less anaemic than expected. One major reason is that Swedish industry has withstood weakness elsewhere in Europe and that both its exports and investments have increased. We examine drivers and conditions for industry’s continued resilience. We conclude that given some recovery in key export countries, a weak krona and low energy prices will contribute to continued relatively good performance by Swedish industry.
United States
The year 2025 will be all about Trump’s policies. We are awaiting more clarity about tariffs, immigration and tax cuts. We expect slower GDP growth. Inflation is taking time to reach target. The Fed is being cautious about key rate cuts.
Euro area
The euro area is continuing its gradual recovery, but both national and international risks remain. Due to lower inflation, continued ECB rate cuts and robust labour markets, domestic demand will eventually accelerate.
China
Growth looks set to slow this year. Inflation will remain subdued. Domestic demand will remain structurally low. Higher US tariffs and other trade barriers will lower the growth contribution of exports.
Sweden
Conditions will soon be in place for a consumption rebound and an acceleration in growth. Unemployment will fall this summer. Core inflation will initially rise but then reverse. The Riksbank will cut its policy rate to 2 per cent in May.
Makropodd about Nordic Outlook February 2025
In this edition of Makropodd, SEB’s chief economist Jens Magnusson and head of forecasting Daniel Bergvall discuss the first edition of the bank’s economic report for the year, Nordic Outlook.
(In Swedish)
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Our macroeconomic flagship report Nordic Outlook contains our economists' views on economic developments in the world. You will find key forecasts as well as an analysis of trends and political decisions that affect the world economy.
