What are the findings in the latest issue of Nordic Outlook? Our economists' give you in-depth theme articles and analysis of trends.
Despite global uncertainty, high energy prices and rising interest rates, global GDP is growing by just over 3 per cent a year. We marginally raise our growth forecast. Investment in AI, defence and energy, an improving industrial cycle and stable labour markets provide support. Yet downbeat households face rising interest rates, higher inflation and stock market volatility, casting doubt on the expansion’s strength. High energy prices drive inflation, with stronger indirect effects growing the longer prices stay elevated. Inflation concerns will prompt central banks, including the ECB, the Federal Reserve and the Riksbank, to further hike once or twice more before cutting rates towards the end of the forecast period.
Chief Economist Jens Magnusson and Head of Forecasting Daniel Bergvall discuss the current state of the global economy and the outlook ahead, as outlined in the November edition of the Nordic Outlook Update. (in Swedish)
In-depth country and regional analyses that we have recently published on our SEB Research website
Growth has remained resilient to shocks from trade and geopolitical conflict, and we raise our GDP forecasts again, slightly. AI investments and spending by wealthier households have made up for weaknesses elsewhere but are set to lose some momentum going forward. Slowing jobs creation and modest wage growth should keep underlying inflation contained but temporary upward pressures from energy and the AI buildout means that inflation will not be back at target until the end of 2028. The Fed raises one more time in December 2026.
Stronger-than-expected growth so far in 2026 will be followed by a temporary slowdown in the end of the year and early 2027. Growth will be supported by household consumption and investment. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated for longer, prompting the ECB to raise interest rates in December 2026 and March 2027. As inflation moves closer to target, the ECB will cut rates three times in 2028. Elections in several countries – with parties on the fringes gaining ground – can have major implications for the whole of the EU.
The growth momentum is currently strong, and we raise our 2026 GDP forecast. Headwinds from higher energy prices and mortgage rates will weigh on growth and the forecast for 2027 has been revised lower. The labour market is starting to improve but indicators imply a modest recovery in the near-term. Dovish signals from the Riksbank and lower-than-expected inflation imply postponed and more modest policy tightening. We predict a second rate hike in March and that the policy rate thereafter remains unchanged at 2.25 per cent until the end of 2028.
In this edition of Makropodd, SEB’s chief economist Jens Magnusson and head of forecasting Daniel Bergvall discuss the bank’s economic report, Nordic Outlook.
Our macroeconomic flagship report Nordic Outlook contains our economists' views on economic developments in the world. You will find key forecasts as well as an analysis of trends and political decisions that affect the world economy.
