The economists’ introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic had not yet released its grip on the world economy before Russia attacked Ukraine, creating a new crisis.
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The Ukraine war is putting pressure on the global economy. Widespread commodity price upturns are fuelling inflation further. Despite a poorer growth outlook, central banks must prioritise their fight against inflation, thus squeezing households and businesses. We have lowered our 2022 global GDP growth forecast by more than one percentage point. Due to fiscal stimulus, pent-up demand, strong private balance sheets and eventual easing of global supply chains, a soft landing is still the most likely outcome.