Growth and markets withstand challenges

Growth in 2025 showed surprising resilience to tariffs and political uncertainty, but outlook is challenged by constant new moves and threats from the White House. We believe that growth will hold up and that global GDP will grow by just over 3 per cent in 2026 and 2027, as rising household income and investment – in defence and AI – lend support. Rapid structural shifts in the economy and political tensions both within and between countries are placing heightened demands on policy-makers. Fiscal policy is supportive despite high debt. The Fed continues to cut rates while several central banks such as the ECB and the Riksbank stay on hold.