Nordic Outlook January 2026

Download Nordic Outlook January (pdf)

What are the findings in the latest issue of Nordic Outlook? Our economists' give you in-depth theme articles and analysis of trends.

Global growth is slowing down, albeit with positive growth surprises, chiefly in the US. World GDP increases by 3 per cent annually and the risks are still slightly higher on the downside than on the upside. The trade agreements of the summer and autumn give high tariffs, yet nonetheless lower than feared. While having trade agreements in place curbs the uncertainty, there is still an unpredictability subduing economic activity. At the same time, companies and households are showing resilience. Fiscal and monetary policy, and expansionary financial conditions, lend support – but also create risks. The ECB is hesitant while the Fed continues its rate cuts, despite temporarily high inflation, buoying equities.

High stakes as the global economy enters a new year

Every year has its challenges. Last year was all about tariffs, geopolitical tensions and how the world would deal with all the dramatic actions from the White House. But despite plenty of turmoil and diversions along the way, the end result was quite good in economic terms. There was no escalated trade war as Europe and many other countries showed restraint and accepted higher tariffs without retaliating. The impact on inflation was smaller than expected and growth and markets proved resilient

Growth and markets withstand challenges

Investment strategist Johan Hagbarth leads a discussion with chief economist Jens Magnusson and head of forecasting Daniel Bergvall about the state of the global economy and the outlook ahead, as summarised in the latest Nordic Outlook.

(In Swedish)

Theme: Ukraine – What will the economic consequences be when the war ends?

It is currently difficult to have an early peace, or even a ceasefire, as the main scenario, but is a reasonable alternative scenario. We therefore discuss the economic effects of the silence of the guns. Increased economic activity in Central and Eastern Europe, stronger risk sentiment, slightly lower energy prices and a stronger euro are possible consequences

Theme Ukraine (pdf)

Theme: Strained relations - Imbalances between EU–China require rethink of strategies

President Trump’s dramatic and highly targeted policies have triggered a far-reaching rebalancing of the global trading system, unfolding against a backdrop of heightened security tensions. This new landscape has laid bare a long-standing, widening and ultimately unsustainable imbalance between the EU and China.

Theme: Strained relations (pdf)

Theme: Higher general government debt – Increased uncertainty but far from a debt crisis

In recent years, the government has decided to deviate from its budget policy targets, andreplace the surplus target for the general government with a balanced budget target. With a combination of an altered budget target, weak economic activity and the decision to exclude aid to Ukraine and heightened defence expenditure from the balance target, general government debt looks set to rise to almost 40 per cent of GDP over the next five years.

Theme Government debt (pdf)

Theme: Spain - Europe’s growth engine

The Spanish economy has shown impressive growth performance in recent years compared with other large economies in the euro area. But the figures conceal structural challenges that need to be addressed if growth is to be sustainable in the long term. Reforms are urgently needed to keep Spain on its growth path.

Theme Spain (pdf)

United States

Growth remains resilient even as key drivers, consumption and AI investments, lose momentum. The GDP forecast is revised up somewhat this year but is unchanged for 2027.

USA (pdf)

Euro area

Growth is driven by consumption, investment and German investments in defence and infrastructure. Demographics and weak productivity growth are limiting the upturn. The ECB is done cutting.

Euro area (pdf)

China

The focus is on industrial overcapacity. The policy support ensures the growth target of 5 percent this year, supported by stable exports. Further consumption support is likely.

China (pdf)

Sweden

Growth has clearly accelerated even before the fiscal stimulus this year has taken effect. Low inflation and high unemployment mean that the Riksbank is holding off on raising the policy rate. A stronger SEK is a downside risk for inflation in 2026.

Sweden (pdf)

Makropodd about Nordic Outlook January 2026

In this edition of Makropodd, SEB’s chief economist Jens Magnusson and head of forecasting Daniel Bergvall discuss the first edition of the bank’s economic report for the year, Nordic Outlook.

Growth and markets withstand challenges (in Swedish)

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Our macroeconomic flagship report Nordic Outlook contains our economists' views on economic developments in the world. You will find key forecasts as well as an analysis of trends and political decisions that affect the world economy.