Nordic Outlook - highlights
What are the findings in the latest issue of Nordic Outlook? Here you find our economists' in-depth theme articles and analysis of trends.
Nordic Outlook
Our macroeconomic flagship report Nordic Outlook contains our economists' views on economic developments in the world. You will find key forecasts as well as an analysis of trends and political decisions that affect the world economy.
5 May 2026
The global economy in a race against time
Geopolitical uncertainty – primarily the conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices – is weighing on growth prospects. Downside risks to the global economy are increasing as energy prices rise and the conflict continues; the Strait of Hormuz needs to be reopened to prevent an escalation of the adverse effects. Although inflation is rising, the effects on core inflation and growth are uncertain. Growth is supported by rising investments in AI, defence and energy transition, as well as by stable labour markets and robust risk appetite. Limited fiscal space implies targeted and temporary energy price support measures. Central banks are looking through the supply shock; the Fed cuts its rate in December, and the ECB makes a precautionary hike this summer.
- Global GDP growth
- 3,0%
- CPIF Sweden
- 1,4%
Earlier reports
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2026
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27 January 2026
Growth and markets withstand challenges
Growth in 2025 showed surprising resilience to tariffs and political uncertainty, but outlook is challenged by constant new moves and threats from the White House. We believe that growth will hold up and that global GDP will grow by just over 3 per cent in 2026 and 2027, as rising household income and investment – in defence and AI – lend support. Rapid structural shifts in the economy and political tensions both within and between countries are placing heightened demands on policy-makers. Fiscal policy is supportive despite high debt. The Fed continues to cut rates while several central banks such as the ECB and the Riksbank stay on hold.
- Global GDP growth
- 3.1%
- CPIF Sweden
- 1.2%
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2025
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11 November 2025
Glimmers of light despite slowing economy
Global growth is slowing down, albeit with positive growth surprises, chiefly in the US. World GDP increases by 3 per cent annually and the risks are still slightly higher on the downside than on the upside. The trade agreements of the summer and autumn give high tariffs, yet nonetheless lower than feared. While having trade agreements in place curbs the uncertainty, there is still an unpredictability subduing economic activity. At the same time, companies and households are showing resilience. Fiscal and monetary policy, and expansionary financial conditions, lend support – but also create risks. The ECB is hesitant while the Fed continues its rate cuts, despite temporarily high inflation, buoying equities.
- Global GDP growth
- 3.0%
- CPIF Sweden
- 1.2%
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26 August 2025
Global tensions hamper growth
- Global GDP growth
- 3.0%
- CPIF Sweden
- 2.6%
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6 May 2025
Tariffs and uncertainty are slowing down the world
- Global GDP growth
- 2.8%
- CPIF Sweden
- 2.5%
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28 January 2025
The economy is being challenged from all sides
- Global GDP growth
- 3,2%
- CPIF Sweden
- 2,0%
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2024
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12 November 2024
Nordic Outlook Update November 2024
- Global GDP growth
- 3.2%
- CPIF Sweden
- 1.8%
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27 August 2024
Nordic Outlook, August 2024
- Global GDP growth
- 3.1%
- CPIF Sweden
- 1.9%
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2 May 2024
Nordic Outlook, May 2024
- Global GDP growth
- 3.0%
- CPIF Sweden
- 2.0
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23 January 2024
Nordic Outlook January 2024
- Global GDP growth
- 2.9%
- CPIF Sweden
- 1.9
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2023
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14 November 2023
Nordic Outlook Update November 2023
- Global GDP growth
- 3.0
- CPIF Sweden
- 6.1%
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31 August 2023
Nordic Outlook August 2023
- Global GDP growth
- 2.7%
- Change GDP euro area
- 0.8%
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31 May 2023
Nordic Outlook May 2023
- Global GDP growth
- 2.5%
- Change GDP euro area
- 0.6%
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23 January 2023
Nordic Outlook January 2023
- Change in GDP Sweden
- 1.1%
- Change in GDP USA
- 1.2%
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2022
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30 November 2022
Nordic Outlook November 2022
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31 August 2022
Nordic Outlook August 2022
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