Previous SEB’s House View reports
SEB’s House View reports are now called Investment Outlook. Here you can find all previous reports published under the name House View.
Investment Outlook
In this report, you will find SEB’s current market outlook – from the overarching macroeconomic factors to our assessment of the equity and fixed income markets.
1 September 2026
When Earnings Broaden, Equities Can Withstand Higher Interest Rates
Our market view remains positive. The global economy continues to grow at a healthy pace, with the recovery broadening geographically, while major investment waves in AI, energy, defence and infrastructure are boosting both demand and long-term productivity. Corporate earnings are developing strongly in both the US and Europe, supporting a continued favourable environment for equities. We therefore remain overweight risk assets, although uncertainty surrounding rising interest rates and geopolitical developments tempers our risk appetite. Geopolitics and energy prices remain the main risks, as new disruptions could lead to higher inflation and further monetary policy tightening. Against this backdrop, we emphasise the importance of broad diversification, as the relationship between equities and bonds no longer works as effectively as it has in the past.
- of S&P 500 companies have exceeded earnings estimates
- 86 %
- expected earnings growth for small-cap companies in 2026
- 39 %
Earlier reports
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2026
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12 May 2026
Investment markets shaped by AI momentum and heightened global risk
AI, geopolitics and energy security are the key drivers shaping the investment environment. Following a strong start to 2026, the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher, increased uncertainty and weighed on growth prospects. At the same time, corporate earnings continue to be supported by AI, defence, infrastructure and electrification. The US is expected to be more resilient than Europe, while Sweden and parts of the emerging markets remain attractive. Central banks are likely to take a more cautious approach to interest rate cuts. We maintain a cautiously positive view on equities, prefer investment grade over high yield, and emphasise selectivity.
- expected earnings growth in the US
- +20%
- expected growth in emerging markets
- +45%
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10 February 2026
Growth drives earnings, which drive markets
In this edition of Investment Outlook, we have increased our risk allocation. Rising global growth, contained inflation, and a broader cyclical upswing continue to provide strong support for equities, while increased investments in defense and infrastructure add further momentum to the economy.
- Expected earnings growth across most regions
- 10%
- Expected earnings growth in cyclical sectors
- 17-45%
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Investment Outlook Highlights
In this report, you will find SEB’s current market outlook – from the overarching macroeconomic factors to our assessment of the equity and fixed income markets.
