Investment Outlook Highlights

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In this report, you will find SEB’s current market view – from the overarching macroeconomic factors to our assessment of the equity and fixed income markets.

Key take aways

Growth and policy support favour higher risk exposure
Global trend growth, expansionary fiscal policy, and AI‑driven productivity all argue for maintaining an overweight in equities.
Inflation remains manageable, but rates are less attractive
Inflation is not limiting risk appetite; however, large budget deficits and uncertainty around monetary policy weigh against long‑duration bonds.
Real assets over long‑duration government bonds
Geopolitics and a weaker dollar support equities and real assets relative to government bonds..

Current allocation view

Emerging markets stand out for their strong potential, and we also maintain a positive outlook on Europe. However, we do not consider the US equity market to be a current favorite. We prefer to take risk through equities rather than high yield bonds, and we hold a slightly positive view on investment grade bonds.

Current allocation view

Investment Outlook in 10 Minutes

Our experts, Carl Hammer and Fredrik Öberg, summarize the key insights from our latest report.

Global economic upswing and a weaker dollar support equites

Global equities remain in the later stages of a long bull market, yet the outlook is still positive. A supportive macro environment – with fiscal stimulus, more accommodative monetary policy, and a weaker US dollar – continues to strengthen risk oriented assets.

Rising supply may push long term yields higher

Ahead of 2026, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swedish Riksbank indicate that policy rates are likely to remain unchanged at current levels for an extended period. The Swedish economy has rebounded faster than expected, while inflation has declined more rapidly and is expected to remain very low during the spring and summer. Taken together, this increases the likelihood of an additional rate cut by the Riksbank.

Rising optimism among Nordic investors

The optimism is unmistakable. Global institutional investors now hold the lowest cash levels in more than 25 years. Nordic listed companies remain optimistic, despite unfavourable currency movements and geopolitical uncertainty. Several indicators point to the beginning of a cyclical economic upswing.

Themes

Will 2026 be the year of small caps?

Ahead of 2025, expectations for Swedish small cap companies were high — but the year ultimately turned out to be their weakest performance relative to the broader market in more than a decade. We now look back to assess whether the conditions are in place for a potential turnaround in 2026.

Will 2026 be the year of small caps?

Tailwinds for Emerging Markets

Emerging markets offer a different type of exposure than developed markets – both geographically and sector wise. For investors seeking to broaden their portfolio and capture long term global trends, emerging markets can be a valuable complement in a well diversified allocation.

Tailwinds for Emerging Markets

Förvaltarpodden

This is the podcast where we take you behind the scenes at SEB's fund management company and share our thoughts, insights, and analyses.

(In Swedish)

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In this edition of Investment Outlook, we have increased our risk allocation. Rising global growth, contained inflation, and a broader cyclical upswing continue to provide strong support for equities, while increased investments in defense and infrastructure add further momentum to the economy.

Do you have questions about Investment Outlook? Please find the relevant contact persons for each area listed below.

Carl Hammer
Head of Asset Allocation
SEB Asset Management

Fredrik Öberg
Chief Investment Officer, Investments
SEB AB

Oskari Eklund
Portfolio Manager
SEB Asset Management

Esbjörn Lundevall
Equity Strategist, Investments
SEB AB

Martin Lundvall
Head of Fixed Income Management
SEB Asset Management

Jimmy Bengtsson
Fund Manager
SEB Asset Management

Marie-Anne Meldahl
Fund Manager
SEB Asset Management

Emma Brage

Editor, Investments
SEB AB
emma.brage@seb.se