What are the findings in the latest issue of Nordic Outlook? Our economists' give you in-depth theme articles and analysis of trends.
Global growth is slowing down, albeit with positive growth surprises, chiefly in the US. World GDP increases by 3 per cent annually and the risks are still slightly higher on the downside than on the upside. The trade agreements of the summer and autumn give high tariffs, yet nonetheless lower than feared. While having trade agreements in place curbs the uncertainty, there is still an unpredictability subduing economic activity. At the same time, companies and households are showing resilience. Fiscal and monetary policy, and expansionary financial conditions, lend support – but also create risks. The ECB is hesitant while the Fed continues its rate cuts, despite temporarily high inflation, buoying equities.
Investment strategist Johan Hagbarth leads a discussion with chief economist Jens Magnusson and head of forecasting Daniel Bergvall about the state of the global economy and the outlook ahead, as summarised in the latest Nordic Outlook.
(In Swedish)
Growth remains resilient to the policy shifts and high uncertainty under the Trump administration. An absence of trade retaliation and a weaker USD have mildened the impact on businesses. Limited tariff inflation will enable the Fed to move rates closer to a neutral level.
Growth will be supported by increases in real household income, reduced uncertainty, fiscal policy, and by time, stronger foreign demand. Inflation is close to target, with risks on both the up- and the downside. The base case is therefore that the ECB will leave the policy rate unchanged during the forecast horizon.
Supported by expansionary fiscal policy, the recovery in household consumption and GDP is gaining momentum, prompting a slight upward revision of our forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The policy rate is expected to remain at 1.75 per cent throughout 2026, but lower inflation and a subdued labour market mean that a final rate cut in spring cannot be ruled out.
Looming tax hikes to weigh on growth.
Growth rotation underway.
Domestic demand to lift growth.
Persistent weakness.
Recovery in a high-inflation environment.
Capital spending fuels recovery.
Waiting for the jump in household consumption.
EM Forecast Update for CEEMEA and Latin America Outlooks.
In this edition of Makropodd, SEB’s chief economist Jens Magnusson and head of forecasting Daniel Bergvall discuss the bank’s economic report, Nordic Outlook (podcast in Swedish).
Our macroeconomic flagship report Nordic Outlook contains our economists' views on economic developments in the world. You will find key forecasts as well as an analysis of trends and political decisions that affect the world economy.
