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Sustainable Finance Outlook: Physical risk meets capital

The latest issue of SEB’s Sustainable Finance Outlook highlights a stark reality: the energy transition is too slow to avert material physical climate risks. It examines exposure to these risks at fund, company and asset levels, and how sustainable finance can strengthen climate resilience. The report also explores water as both a systemic financial risk and an investment opportunity. 

“The transition is indeed underway, driven by economic and geopolitical forces, but it is not happening fast enough to avoid negative human and economic consequences,” says Thomas Thygesen, Head of Strategy and ESG in SEB Equity Research. “The exact number is up for debate, but there is little doubt that continued increase in temperatures will come at high costs. Now companies and investors must find out how to measure and address those risks.”  

“Physical climate risks are often overlooked and even companies with low carbon intensity and strong governance can have assets that are highly exposed to flooding or extreme heat,” says Samantha Arpas, Sustainable Finance Specialist at SEB. “Physical risk exposure varies across funds, but water stress emerges as the dominant hazard regardless of market segment.” 

“Against a backdrop of growing geopolitical tensions, global sustainable debt transactions reached USD 1.6 trillion until the end of September, up 15 per cent year on year,” says Gregor Vulturius, Lead Scientist and Senior Advisor in Climate & Sustainable Finance at SEB. “Corporate issuers generally allocate little sustainable finance to climate resilience, with less than 3 per cent of reported allocations since 2013 directed towards reducing vulnerability to climate risk.”  

“Asset-level assessment is essential for investors and corporates to understand the potential economic consequences of climate risk exposure and make informed decisions.” says Samantha Arpas. “We identify 48 European data centres among those with the highest climate risk exposure across leading markets worldwide.” 

The report also features an analysis by Christopher Flensborg, Head of SEB Water, on how climate change compounds pressures from ageing infrastructure, underinvestment, pollution and rising demand—and how to make water investments bankable. 

About the Sustainable Finance Outlook  

The Sustainable Finance Outlook delivers insights and market intelligence for navigating the sustainability transition. Issued four times per year, the report engages a readership exceeding 3000, comprising financial institutions, corporates, and decisionmakers within SEB's primary markets. 

Sustainable Finance Outlook Highlights
 

For more information, please contact:
Gregor Vulturius, Lead Scientist and Senior Advisor in Climate and Sustainable Finance
+46 70 739 2016
gregor.vulturius@seb.se

Press contact:
Petter Brunnberg, Head of Press & Media Relations 
+46 70 
763 5166
petter.brunnberg@seb.se

SEB is a leading northern European financial services group with international reach. We exist to positively shape the future with responsible advice and capital, today and for generations to come. By partnering with our customers, we want to be a leading catalyst in the transition to a more sustainable world. In Sweden and the Baltic countries, SEB offers financial advice and a wide range of financial services. In Denmark, Finland, Norway, Germany and the United Kingdom, we have a strong focus on corporate and investment banking based on a full-service offering to corporate and institutional clients. The international nature of SEB's business is reflected in our presence in more than 20 countries worldwide, with around 18,400 employees. At 30 September 2026, the Group's total assets amounted to SEK 4,439bn while assets under management totalled SEK 3,157bn. Read more about SEB at sebgroup.com.

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