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Investment Outlook: Back to the growth track

We believe that the world economy will avoid a recession and largely revert to its historical growth track this year and next. We also expect corporate earnings to rise this year and during 2025. Inflation will subside, and central banks will be able to cut their key interest rates, though at varying speeds and magnitudes. Valuations and general risk-taking among investors have climbed, but there is still upward potential.

“We expect continued positive returns from both equities and fixed income and a continued trend towards a broader upturn. We believe that the rest of 2024 will be characterised by an environment of falling inflation and gradually less restrictive central banks,” says Fredrik Öberg, Chief Investment Officer at SEB’s Private Wealth Management & Family Office Division.

We foresee an opportunity for positive returns on both fixed income investments and equities. This means that the entire spectrum, from low-risk to high-risk portfolios, should be able to deliver positive absolute returns. In our model portfolios, we continue to have a moderate overweight in equities. If risk appetite continues to rise, these portfolios should be able to generate excess returns relative to our benchmark indices. Risk appetite or positioning among investors has risen a lot since its most recent low in September 2022 but has not yet reached euphoric levels. If the economic cycle turns out as we forecast, there is a good chance that the investor community will take another step upward on the risk scale.

Theme articles
This May 2024 edition of Investment Outlook also includes two interesting theme articles:

  • Theme: Central bank choices – Stock market winners and losers
  • Theme: India – Strong growth prospects, institutional concerns

You will find the full report, plus a video, at www.seb.se/investmentoutlookreport.

For further information, contact:
Fredrik Öberg, CIO, Private Wealth Management & Family Office, SEB
+46 70 767 6179

Press contact:
Niklas Magnusson, Head of Media Relations & External Communication
+46 70 763 8243

SEB is a leading northern European financial services group with international reach. We exist to positively shape the future with responsible advice and capital, today and for generations to come. By partnering with our customers, we want to be a leading catalyst in the transition to a more sustainable world. In Sweden and the Baltic countries, SEB offers financial advice and a wide range of financial services. In Denmark, Finland, Norway, Germany and the United Kingdom, we have a strong focus on corporate and investment banking based on a full-service offering to corporate and institutional clients. The international nature of SEB's business is reflected in our presence in more than 20 countries worldwide, with around 17,500 employees. At 31 March 2024, the Group's total assets amounted to SEK 4,130bn while assets under management totalled SEK 2,567bn. Read more about SEB at sebgroup.com.