14 Aug 2017 11:23

“Get ready for an exciting start of the autumn”

“As the Trump drama continues, with unclear implications for geopolitics and US fiscal policy, we will turn more focus on the future of Europe and monetary policy”. SEB´s chief economist Robert Bergqvist foresees an exciting start of the autumn, in a short comment.

“We’re coming closer to a ”make-or-break” situation for the EU and Brexit. After the German election on September 24 the new dynamic duo Merkel & Macron will try to save the EU and the euro with more integration and a multi-speed solution ahead of the 2019 EU elections. Get ready for a bumpy ride.”

“The global economy continues to strengthen with near-term prospects the best in a long time. Despite the ‘lowflation’ environment the ECB, the Riksbank and the Fed will confirm further normalisation steps within the next couple of weeks. The world still needs expansionary monetary policy but it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find arguments for its more extreme expressions such as zero or negative interest rates and QE policies. And when the ECB moves, the Swedish krona will strengthen.”