The United States and Iran have agreed to a 14-day ceasefire following mediation by Pakistan. The deal aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping while both sides enter negotiations to find a longer-term end to the conflict.
President Trump announced the "double-sided" agreement on Wednesday, confirming that the United States will suspend attacks in exchange for the reopening of the vital waterway. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) confirmed the pause in hostilities, stating that safe passage through the Strait would be possible via coordination with its armed forces.
The agreement, brokered by Pakistan, requires both nations to observe a total cessation of fire for two weeks. During this window, Iran has agreed to allow oil and gas vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz unmolested. This waterway is a critical chokepoint for global energy, with a significant amount of the world's oil passing through it daily.
Despite the breakthrough, experts warn that the transition from a temporary pause to a lasting peace will be difficult. The two nations remain far apart on several key issues, including uranium enrichment and international sanctions.
"The road to a durable peace remains highly uncertain given the low levels of trust and the distant initial bargaining positions of both nations”, says Erik Meyersson, economist at SEB.
A primary source of tension is the geographic scope of the deal. While Pakistan suggested the ceasefire applies everywhere, including Lebanon, the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office stated that the arrangement does not include Lebanese territory.
Iran has presented a 10-point proposal as a basis for further talks. Their demands include the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, compensation payments, and the withdrawal of United States combat forces from the region.
While many of these points may be difficult for the United States and its allies to accept, a constructive interpretation of recent events is that both sides may have realised that concessions are necessary. For the United States, this may include upfront sanctions relief to ensure the Strait remains open to trade.
Internal politics in Iran also play a major role in the success of the talks. Following recent changes in leadership, it is unclear who holds the ultimate power to sign off on a final deal.
"A key source of uncertainty is the decision-making process within the Iranian regime following significant leader turnover”, says Erik Meyersson.
The negotiations will continue over the next fortnight, with the international community watching closely to see if pragmatic elements within the Iranian government can secure a permanent resolution.
Location: A narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Economic impact: It is the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint.
Volume: Approximately 20 per cent of the world's liquid petroleum consumption passes through the Strait.
Current status: Iran has agreed to a two-week reopening for commercial vessels starting 8 April 2026.