SEB’s Nordic Seminar in Copenhagen brought together more than 150 companies and 1,000 investors to start the year. The clear message: Nordic companies are more confident about growth in 2026 than they were a year ago.
The three-day event included company presentations, 3,000 one-on-one meetings and expert panels on Europe’s energy mix, rearmament and China’s role in technology. According to SEB Equity Research, the tone was noticeably more optimistic than last year.
“Confidence has improved significantly compared to 2025, and that supports our expectation of stronger earnings growth this year,” said Thomas Thygesen, Head of equity strategy at SEB.
A survey of 100 participating Nordic companies shows that growth is expected mainly in Europe and Nordic home markets. 35 per cent pointed to Europe and 31 per cent to their home markets, while only 19 per cent mentioned the United States and 6 per cent China.
“Europe looks set to deliver the biggest growth surprises in 2026,” says Senior equity strategist Elizabeth Mathiesen, adding that Nordic markets are also expected to perform strongly.
On artificial intelligence (AI), companies remain cautious. While 26 per cent believe AI will be positive for earnings 65 per cent think it is either too early for large-scale deployment or will have no major impact in the next two years. This supports SEB Equity Strategy’s view that productivity gains from AI will take time to materialise.
Geopolitical risk was not seen as a major factor in planning. 60 per cent said it had no influence on their plans. The war in Ukraine was the most cited concern at 16 per cent, followed by European political fragmentation at 13 per cent. Meanwhile, supply chain disruption topped the list of risks to growth, mentioned by 30 per cent of companies.
“The most pronounced risk companies see is to supply chain disruption, and this type of risk is normally associated with geopolitical risks or other global external shocks,” Mads Bossen, equity strategist.
Differences across Nordic countries were clear. Swedish and Danish companies focused on home markets, while Finnish firms looked to the United States. Views on AI were most optimistic in Sweden and Denmark, and geopolitical concerns were highest in Finland.
The Nordic Seminar is an annual event hosted by SEB to connect companies and investors and discuss structural themes shaping markets. This year’s findings align with SEB’s expectation that earnings estimates will bottom out in the first quarter and that Europe will see a capex-driven boom in the coming years.