The survey replies regarding the main opportunities and challenges in 2025 were quite clear-cut. Lack of demand is by far the main challenge, while hopes of a global recovery continue to be seen as the main opportunity.
“We take this as a sign that companies still have limited visibility when it comes to the expected improvement in earnings: most appear to be expecting an improvement in the economy this year, but they cannot actually see it yet,” says Thomas Thygesen, Head of Strategy at SEB’s Equites unit.
The survey, answered by more than 100 representatives from Nordic companies participating in SEB’s recent Nordic Seminar event, shows that US tariffs are the most important risk right now. However, more than 50 per cent of respondents did not consider geopolitical risk a relevant concern.
Nordic Seminar is the largest investor event in the Nordic region with more than 160 companies and more than 1000 participants.
Cyclicals worry about demand, healthcare about tariffs
Unsurprisingly, concerns about demand and hopes of a recovery are far more pronounced in the cyclical sectors (Industrials, IT and Consumer Discretionary) than elsewhere. More than 50 per cent in the cyclical sectors shared the same concerns about the lack of demand and opportunities with a global macro recovery. These sectors are also where most of the companies at the seminar are from.
On the geopolitical risks, concerns about US tariffs were also highest in the cyclical sectors, but the sector that saw the biggest impact from tariffs was health care with 80 per cent.
Subtle differences between the countries
Looking at the responses from companies by country, there are some subtle differences. Swedish companies collectively identified lack of demand as the primary challenge, with global recovery cited as the biggest opportunity, but geopolitical risk was not a major concern for these companies. On the other hand, Danish companies were less focused on cyclical risks, but more concerned about US tariffs, perhaps reflecting the large exposure to the healthcare sector.
Norwegian companies also identified global macro recovery as the greatest opportunity but did not see lack of demand as a significant challenge for 2025. Instead, political uncertainty emerged as a major concern. Additionally, regarding geopolitical risks, Norwegian companies expressed less concern over US tariffs, instead prioritising the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, which are more important to the energy sector. Finland largely mirrored Sweden with an even higher percentage of companies viewing lack of demand as a key challenge. Still, they were also more concerned about geopolitical risks than other Nordic companies, with nearly 60 per cent of Finnish companies indicating that US tariffs would impact their 2025 plans.
Consistent with signs of a trough in estimates
“The impression from our survey fits well with what we have seen in earnings estimates recently. SEB estimates for Nordic companies appear to have bottomed, but still no sign of an upgrade cycle,” says Thomas Thygesen.
He says that initial winners are likely to be companies that benefit from stronger domestic demand, especially in Sweden and Denmark. At the same time, a broader rotation into Nordic exposures is likely to follow when global PMIs start rising again.