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Post-Brexit: Divorce completed…still friends?

After several deadlines, the UK and the EU have finally reached an agreement on life after Brexit. The UK has been member of the EU since 1973 but left the EU on 31 January 2020. The deal means that the UK is now leaving EU's customs union and single market on 31 December 2020 . The "divorce" has been complicated. It remains to be seen if the bloc and the UK will find the way back to each other. COVID-19 and lasting Brexit effects are expected to continue to weigh on the UK economic recovery in 2021 and the undervalued pound. A Brexit deal has been our main scenario.

  • Finally – a Brexit deal! A new era begins – will it be a success story?
  • Services are not included – will have to be addressed
  • The proximity will force the UK & EU to work closely together
  • Negative impact remains on UK GDP – GBP trades with 10% premium
  • EU more likely to enhance integration when focus turns towards the EU rather than the breakup with UK
  • Three different dimensions of uncertainty for the UK:
  1. New agreements/deals with the EU & the rest of the world – if and when?
  2. What's the UK & London aiming for?
  3. New "Brexit" events (= black swans)

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