Highlights from the latest SEB House View
The committee decided to keep the risk utilisation at 50 per cent.
- Policy uncertainty remains elevated, though markets have increasingly learned to discount threats of tariff retaliation.
- Over the summer, greater clarity on both tariffs and growth should emerge, with a likely spike in market volatility.
- Consensus expects US tariffs on China to settle around 30–40 per cent, with tariffs on the rest of the world averaging near 10 per cent. This is expected to slow, but not derail, US growth.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates later in 2025, and the US Congress is likely to pass the "Big and Beautiful Bill". Looking beyond near-term uncertainty, this should offer positive policy support for markets.