08 Dec 2009 10:00

Investment Outlook: Anatomy of the recovery

Aside from economic policy programmes, there appear to be underlying forces that in the long term will sustain positive economic growth. Looking back at history, it is possible to draw encouraging parallels with the structure and dynamic of previous recoveries. But no two crises are identical. For example, higher inflation expectations could distort the current recovery scenario. In other words, there are many indications that 2010 will be an interesting year, and probably full of surprises.
In focus in this December 2009 issue of Investment Outlook:
"A continued cyclical upswing this winter and spring will provide a favourable financial investment environment for another while. After that, be prepared for somewhat choppier markets as accelerating growth levels off, due to the launch of exit policies and the fading positive impact of the inventory cycle," says Hans Peterson, Global Head of Investment Strategy.
"The dollar is affected by both risk appetite and global liquidity flows. A weak dollar should benefit the global recovery and American exporters can take advantage of the situation," Mr Peterson continues.
"Long-term global imbalance between commodity supply and demand will benefit this asset class. In some cases, commodity shares may be a better form of exposure than futures," he concludes.
Investment Strategy's current asset management strategy is based on the prospect of a gradual improvement in macroeconomic conditions as well as a normalisation of the corporate bond market. Due to the withdrawal of the unprecedented stimulus measures initiated by governments and central banks, there is a risk that the current acceleration in the world economy will be followed by more or less level growth, starting in the latter part of 2010.
The Investment Outlook report is published by Investment Strategy and appears four times per year. It is intended for the customers of SEB Private Banking. The report provides an idea of how Private Banking turns global economic conditions into actual investment opportunities.
SEB is a Northern European financial group serving some 400,000 corporate customers and institutions and five million private individuals. SEB offers universal banking services in Sweden, Germany and the three Baltic countries - Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. It also has a local presence in the other Nordic countries, Ukraine and Russia and a global presence through its international network in leading financial centres. On September 30, 2009, the Group's total assets amounted to SEK 2,233 billion and its assets under management totalled SEK 1,295 billion. The SEB Group has about 20,000 employees. Read more about SEB at www.sebgroup.com.
For further information, please contact:
Hans Peterson, CIO Private Banking and global head Investment Strategy, +46 70-763 6921
Lars Gunnar Aspman, Senior analyst, Investment Strategy, +46 70-603 98 18
Elisabeth Lennhede, Press & PR, 070-763 99 16, elisabeth.lennhede@seb.se