Hans Peterson, head of Asset Allocation at SEB, says the world is changing, as so are the ways value is generated. He believes the driving forces we have seen in the past 10-20 years will not be repeated?
“Saving and debt in various sectors of the economy have changed, and future demand will partly come from new sources. This may be important for commodity prices. The demand for commodities is often driven higher in the early growth phases, but when demand later matures, new patterns emerge. We may be on the threshold of such a phase today,” says Hans Peterson, who is also publisher of Investment Outlook.
The market prospects described in this issue of Investment Outlook have a mildly positive tilt, including a belief in rising markets and value generation. SEB’s experts discuss to what extent active central banks, reforms in Japan, stabilisation in the US labour market and gradually increasing risk appetite and optimism will sustain the underlying trend.
“Rising asset values lead to greater willingness to set the economic wheels in motion in the form of consumption and investments. This is probably the course of events we are about to witness,” Peterson says.
In a theme article in this issue, entitled “Liquidity driving markets and the economy”, the experts have chosen to look closely at liquidity and how it affects market performance. Earlier strict austerity in fiscal policy, especially in European problem countries, is now on its way to being replaced by less austere policies. SEB’s experts say the seasonal pattern of recent years has ended and that a rather mild economic slowdown during the spring will be followed by gradually stronger growth that will continue into 2014.
Another theme article talks about underlying driving forces in the market. The demand for industrial input goods (commodities) to develop infrastructure and other capital spending have been the primary driving force in global growth. Now there is a trend towards other patterns, driven by consumption rather than capital spending.